HitwiseAdvanced
Running count vs true count: Hi-Lo counting
Card counting is neither magic nor illegal in itself: it's a way to track, roughly, what's left in the shoe. When many 10s and Aces remain, the player is favoured (more 3:2 blackjacks, more profitable doubles, a dealer who busts more). When mostly small cards remain, the dealer is.
The Hi-Lo system
Hi-Lo is the most popular system because it's simple and balanced. Every card you see gets a value:
| Cards | Value | Why |
|---|---|---|
| 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 | +1 | A small card leaves: the shoe gets richer in big cards. |
| 7, 8, 9 | 0 | Neutral cards. |
| 10, J, Q, K, Ace | −1 | A big card leaves: the shoe gets poorer. |
A full deck sums to 0: there are as many +1 cards (20 per deck) as −1 cards (20 per deck). That's what makes it a balanced system.
The running count
The running count is simply the sum of the values of every card seen since the last shuffle. Example: 5, 10, 2, 9, Ace, 6 come out → +1 −1 +1 0 −1 +1 = +1.
The catch: a running count of +6 doesn't mean the same thing with 1 deck left as with 7. Hence the true count.
The true count
The true count expresses the running count "per remaining deck":
Running count +6 with 3 decks left → true count +2. The same +6 with 6 decks left → true count +1.
In Hitwise Premium you set the number of decks and the penetration; Hitwise tracks the remaining cards and computes the true count for you on every click.
What to do with the true count
1. Size your bets
This is where most of the edge lives. As a rule of thumb, each true count point is worth about 0.5% to the player. Starting from a house edge of roughly 0.5%, you need a true count around +1 to +2 for the game to become neutral or slightly favourable. Counters therefore bet small when the count is low and more when it's high.
2. Deviate from basic strategy
Some decisions change with the count. The best-known (the "Illustrious 18"):
- Insurance: take it at a true count of +3 or more, never below.
- 16 vs 10: stand if the true count is zero or positive, hit if it's negative.
- 15 vs 10: stand at +4 or more.
- 12 vs 3: stand at +2 or more; 12 vs 2: stand at +3 or more.
With Chart Custom (Premium) you can build a "high count" chart and switch to it when the true count calls for it.
Where counting is useless
Let's be clear: on RNG blackjack (100% software), the deck is virtually reshuffled every hand. The count resets every time, so counting achieves nothing at all. The same goes for continuous shuffling machines.
Counting only makes sense with a physical shoe, live or in a casino, and depends heavily on penetration: if the dealer reshuffles at 50% of the shoe, high counts are rare. Many live tables cut early for exactly that reason.
In short
- +1 for 2–6, 0 for 7–9, −1 for 10s and Aces.
- True count = running count ÷ decks remaining.
- The edge comes mostly from bet sizing, a little from deviations.
- Useless on RNG; only useful with a real shoe and good penetration.
- Even done well, the edge is thin and the variance huge: set yourself limits.
Frequently asked questions
How do you calculate the true count?
Divide the running count by the number of decks left in the shoe. Example: +6 with 3 decks left gives a true count of +2.
Does card counting work online?
Not on RNG blackjack, which reshuffles every hand. Only at live tables with a real shoe and enough penetration.